Future of MRFs: New contract terms, more tech, ongoing stress
December 11, 2018
December 11, 2018
Cole Rosengren of Waste Dive Magazine attended NERC's Fall 2018 Conference In Rocky Hill CT. Here is his account of the many subjects covered in depth. The original article can be found here.
It's well-documented by now how challenging operations have been at U.S. MRFs recently, especially in the wake of China's scrap import restrictions. Last week, at the Northeast Recycling Council's fall conference in Rocky Hill, Connecticut, multiple presentations even went so far as to include images of MRFs getting struck by lightning bolts or being targeted by aircraft bombs. Amid this siege mentality, however, there were still signs of hope for how the industry can move forward.
Under Pressure
Few, if any, areas of the country have been immune to tight commodity markets. The largest publicly-traded players in U.S. recycling have discussed it ad nauseam during earnings calls, interviews and conference appearances since last summer. They touched on many of the usual points during an opening panel, with a few variations on running messages.
- Susan Robinson, Waste Management's director of federal public affairs, made her signature presentation on the potential emissions benefits of recycling certain materials, noting the current scenario of an inelastic supply chain puts MRFs under "extreme stress." She described as unrealistic the concept some have of MRFs being a "black box" that can handle whatever comes their way. “We’re asking them to basically work magic with something that’s a very complex stream coming in the door."
- Frank Chimera, senior manager of municipal services for Republic Services, delivered his company's own message about why cost expectations need to be adjusted. “We believe strongly that you can’t have sustainability without economic viability," said Chimera. The fact that Republic has invested $1.5 million in new technology at its Seattle MRF was held up as a sign that similar upgrades could be possible elsewhere when contract terms are favorable.
- Bob Cappadona, vice president of recycling for Casella Waste Systems, described the scrutiny on bale quality as unlike anything he's seen in a 30-plus year career. Cappadona said "we’ve done it all" when it comes to improving quality, motivated in part by the specter of highly expensive container rejection fees. However, he questioned how feasible proposed uniform audit standards would be at large facilities such as the company's Boston MRF, which produces around 1,000 bales per day.
Evolutions and Changes
As all of these recycling cost pressures play out, there have already been numerous changes in the way that industry and local government interact. This has manifested itself in a variety of examples around the country and will continue to do so for months — if not years — to come. Presentations from multiple consultants in the field covered a few key trends currently underway and made the case for no longer thinking about recycling as a purely profit-driven enterprise:
- Michael Timpane, vice president of process optimization and recovery at RRS, said he was aware of roughly 100 contract conflicts around the U.S. These include multiple instances of force majeure being invoked and ongoing disputes over who should bear various costs. He recommended rethinking single-stream as a "convenience service" and decoupling it from a traditional commodity value mindset.
- Mitch Kessler of Kessler Consulting agreed that contract structures need to move away from local governments or companies counting on commodity revenue. “It was never meant to be budgeted; it was never meant to be a revenue generator," he said. Kessler also said that blaming long-running trends — such as the evolving ton, changing oil prices and, above all, Chinese trade policy — lacked perspective. "This has been going for a while. We chose to ignore it to some extent."
- The need to invest significantly in new MRF tech was also a running theme, with multiple speakers saying the industry could do more. Nat Egosi, president of RRT Design & Construction, said counting on revenue alone to cover capital costs wouldn't be sufficient. “Huge investments need to be made, and I mean huge investments," he said. According to Egosi, ideal technology for the "MRF of Tomorrow" will include new OCC screens, auger screens, anti-wrapping screens and more optical sorters.
2019 and Beyond
Now that the industry is more than a year into this new post-China reality, there is a sense of tentative stability and occasionally even cautious optimism about what comes next. Many local governments will continue to struggle with rising costs, but speakers at the NERC event saw reason for hope in the Northeast. They also touched on a few potential changes that have yet to materialize, but are either being discussed or could come up in the years ahead:
- Multiple speakers urged against suspending or canceling recycling programs. Gregory Anderson, chief of staff at New York's Department of Sanitation, said participation rates suffered for years after the city temporarily cut certain items. “The solution today isn't to to take drastic steps to cut entire products out of our recycling program because of current day situations, unless we’re prepared to never have those products back in our program in the future."
- Despite a few examples around the country, no one expects to see dual-stream make a big comeback. Convenience and capital costs were listed as key reasons. “You’re going to get a better quality stream out of dual stream, there’s no doubt about it, but the cost to collect is exorbitant," said Chimera, adding that in many areas “those trucks are gone."
- Eileen Berenyi of Governmental Advisory Associates predicted the industry might see more public-private partnerships, increasing automation and possibly even new mixed waste concepts. Projects by Fiberight in Maine and RePower in Alabama were cited as recent examples. “I really think in the future we’re going to see more attempt to capture the energy component of the waste," she said.
- Chaz Miller, formerly of NWRA, said he was heartened by the amount of news about recent paper mill investments but expects markets to remain tight for at least the next 24-36 months. “There’s clearly light at the end of the tunnel, but you don’t build these facilities overnight."
NERC welcomes Guest Blog submissions. To inquire about submitting articles contact Megan Schulz-Fontes. Disclaimer: Guest blogs represent the opinion of the writers and may not reflect the policy or position of the Northeast Recycling Council, Inc.
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2025 was not a good year for recycling markets. Prices went down for everything in your bin. The only real difference is how badly each material got hit and why. Let’s start with paper, the most important recyclable in terms of weight and volume. Old Corrugated Container (OCC, boxes) prices started rising in the spring of 2023, peaking for several months in the summer of 2024. A long slide then began and lasted for almost all of 2025. Prices for Residential Mixed Paper (RMP) did the same. Nationally, OCC is now at $46.88 per ton and RMP is $20.31 a ton. OCC went down by a third while RMP went down by half. The “good” news is that these prices have been lower in the last five years. RMP, after all, had a negative value early in 2020 and then for a few months in late 2022. (All prices in this article are national prices from RecyclingMarkets.net as of December 31). The 2023 rise and then fall of recycled paper prices was the result of increased capacity to use OCC and RMP as raw materials along with declining overall demand for boxes. New recycled content paper capacity started coming online in 2017, peaking in 2023 when five new mills opened. Those new mills, eager to build up supply lines, caused prices to go up. Existing capacity had no choice but to also pay more. At the same time, demand for new boxes was going down. In fact, box demand has been going down for four years. Something had to give. In 2025, nine existing paper mills announced they would be closing. Old, more expensive, and less efficient to operate, they couldn’t compete with the new mills. All four plastic resins lost value but the impact varied by resin. Natural HDPE, (mostly milk jugs) lost a third of its value. Polypropylene (mostly dairy products) went down by 40 percent. Color HDPE (consumer products such as detergent and shampoo) went down by 48 percent and PET beverage bottles went down by two thirds. Natural HDPE is 46.81 cents a pound. Even at the lower price, this resin remains in a good price range. PET and polypropylene are both 5.38 cents a pound. Recycled PET rose steadily from the summer of 2023 to the summer of 2024. Then it declined equally steadily until it reached a record low of 4.19 cents in early October of this year. Cheap recycled resin imports, too much domestic virgin PET resin and lower summer beverage demand gave prices nowhere to go but down. Recycled PET resin imports are now subject to tariffs, which may be responsible for its recent increase. Nonetheless, its price remains in the doldrums. Polypropylene generally has a low price except when new capacity is coming online and building up capacity. For 46 of the 72 months since January 2020, its price has been less than a dime a pound. For 17 months, it’s been at its current not very good price or less. Color HDPE is 2.81 cents a pound. This resin depends on construction markets because the color can’t be taken out of the resin. New housing starts have been in decline for four years. It also set a record low price in 2025. Aluminum and steel cans are recycling market’s happy place. Their prices went down by 9.3 and 8.7 percent. Aluminum cans have a national average price of 78.75 cents while steel cans go for $158.75 a ton. Over the last few years, the aluminum industry smartly expanded into non-alcoholic beverages such as water and fruit juices. Those new uses keep demand up. After sliding last year, steel can prices stabilized. As for glass, it’s price rarely changes. Clear glass bottles go for $38.56 a ton, brown for $27.19 and green for $10.31. Those prices all rose slightly in the spring of 2023. Mixed glass from single stream curbside collection has a “negative tipping fee” of $25.31 a ton. In other words, the MRF pays the end market to buy it. That price became slightly more negative this year. The glass industry has been in decline for some time, a victim of lighter weight aluminum cans and plastic bottles. In addition, Americans are drinking less alcohol. That’s the biggest user of glass bottles. Our beleaguered economy is hurting recycling markets. Recyclables are just raw materials looking for a buyer. Those buyers are purchasing managers making a bet on how much raw materials they will need for their companies’ products. This can be, say, aluminum cans, boxes to ship those empty cans to beverage companies or boxes to deliver filled cans to retail outlets. When buyers are optimistic, they buy more. In 2025, they were gloomy. Prices of all of these recyclables have been hurt by declining unit sales of consumer products and the resulting decline in box demand. We are in a “ K-shaped” economic recovery from the pandemic. This means the recovery’s impact varied by economic status. Wealthy households now account for half of consumer spending on goods and services. They spend more on “services” such as trips and entertainment than on goods. Lower income households, however, are squeezed between paying for necessities such as housing, health care, insurance and food before everything else. They are pinching their nickels and looking for bargains. Simply stated, due to the K-shaped recovery, sales are down and we need fewer packages and shipping boxes. So what will happen in 2026? The loss of so much older paper capacity is bringing demand and supply back into a better balance. Look for prices to rebound a bit. Plastic prices will remain soft barring a reversal of the K-shaped recovery. PET prices, have the most potential if beverage demand returns. Color HDPE, will remain in the doldrums until new housing construction increases. Natural HDPE will stay where it is or go up a bit. Polypropylene will probably stay where it is. As for glass, change isn’t likely. I realize that’s not optimistic. Given the projected rise in health, insurance and energy costs this year, Americans will still be pinching pennies. Box production will decline as unit sales fall. Our K-shaped economy needs to become a rising economic tide lifting all boats. Recyclables, afterall, are commodities subject to the economy’s ups and downs. When our economy truly rebounds, recycling markets will thrive again. Read on Waste360.
MRFs in the Northeast United States reported a decrease in average prices for nearly all recycled commodities — with glass and bulky rigids providing the rare bright spot — during the third quarter of 2025, according to a report from the Northeast Recycling Council. This continues the downward trend reported in the region since Q2. In Q3, average blended commodity value without residuals was $75.14, a decrease of 21.9% from the previous quarter. When calculating the value with residuals, prices were $60.16, a decrease of 27.24%, says the quarterly MRF Commodity Values Survey Report. Single-stream MRFs saw values decrease sequentially by 23.32% without residuals and 28.86% with residuals. Dual-stream or source-separated MRFs saw decreases of 17.33% without residuals and 21.76% with residuals compared to last quarter. The report includes information from 19 MRFs representing 12 states: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Virginia. The NERC report is meant to offer a regional look at price trends and is a part of the group’s ongoing work to promote and boost recycled commodity supply and demand in the Northeast. It surveys a variety of MRFs in numerous markets, including those in five states with beverage container deposit laws, which it says affect material flows into MRFs. NERC says its reports are not meant to be used as a price guide for MRF contracts because it “represents the diversity of operating conditions in these locations.” NERC adopted a new report format at the beginning of 2025 that now provides average prices for specific commodities in addition to aggregate values. According to the Q3 report, most commodity categories fell significantly, with the exception of glass and the “special case of bulky rigids.” The average price for bulky rigids in the quarter was $43.26, a 93% increase from the previous quarter. NERC did not offer insight into the increase. The average price for PET was $125.58 in the quarter, down 60%, while prices for Natural HDPE fetched about $955.31 a ton, down 46%. OCC saw an average price of about $86.23, down 10%, according to the report. Major publicly-traded waste companies echoed similar commodity trends during their Q3 earnings calls . Casella, which operates in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, reported that its average recycled commodity revenue per ton was down 29% year over year in Q3. To reduce the impact from low commodity values, the company typically shares risk with customers by adjusting tip fees in down markets. Recent upgrades at a Connecticut MRF helped raise revenue for processing volumes in the quarter, executives said. Meanwhile, Republic Services is planning to build a polymer center for processing recycled plastic in Allentown, Pennsylvania, next year. During the Q3 earnings call in October, executives said they expect strong demand at such centers from both a pricing and volume standpoint, despite the decline in commodity prices. The company already has similar polymer centers in Indianapolis and Las Vegas, which consume curbside-collected plastics from Republic’s recycling centers and produce products such as clear, hot-wash PET flake and sorted bales of other plastics. Read on Waste Dive.
NERC’s Material Recovery Facilities (MRF) Commodity Values Survey Report for the period July - September 2025 showed a continued decline in the average commodity prices for Q3 2025. The average value of all commodities decreased by 21.90% without residuals to $75.14 and by 27.24% with residuals to $60.16, as compared to last quarter. Single stream decreased by 23.32% without residuals and 28.86% with residuals, while dual stream / source separated decreased by 17.33% without residuals and 21.76% with residuals compared to last quarter. Dual stream MRFs saw a slightly smaller decrease with residuals than single stream. Individual commodity price averages this quarter denote the decrease felt across all commodity categories apart from glass and the special case of bulky rigids.
