The Good, the Bad and the Meh: Midsummer Recycling Markets

Chaz Miller • July 22, 2024

Chaz Miller

July 22, 2024


A bit more than halfway through the year, MRF recycling markets are blowing hot, cold, and indifferent. On the hot side are old corrugated containers (OCC), residential mixed paper (RMP), PET bottles, and aluminum cans. Steel cans and colored HDPE bottles are cold. Natural HDPE bottles and polypropylene (PP) packaging are kind of meh. At least prices aren’t as volatile as the summer of 2021 when most recyclables set record highs only to watch them disappear.


Let’s start with the hot markets. PET bottle and aluminum can markets reflect changes in seasonal demand for beverages. Beer, soda pop and bottled water sales are highest between Memorial and Labor Days. In the spring, when purchasing agents start stepping up their orders for these packages, supply is low. The increased demand drives up prices. Similarly, in midsummer, prices start to go down as supply exceeds anticipated post-Labor Day demand.


Currently, the national price for a bale of PET bottles is 17.41 cents per pound, about 50 percent higher than it was at the beginning of the year (note: all MRF bale prices are from RecyclingMarkets.net as of July 19). Aluminum cans are currently just a hair under 76 cents a pound, about a 25 percent increase in value. MRFs are benefitting from strong prices from both packages. Nonetheless, they will go down soon, as they usually do.


National prices remain strong for both OCC and RMP. The average price for old boxes is $107.50 a ton. Those prices started rising at the beginning of 2023. Their value has more than tripled since then. RMP has grown to a current value of $70.63 a ton from a negative value of -$1.50 a ton in November 2022. Prices for both have flattened out. They provide a strong base for MRF revenue.


Recycled paper prices remained strong over the last year in spite of unusual demand and supply realities. Demand for OCC and RMP is up because the paper packaging industry has experienced a rapid increase in its capacity to use recycled paper. All six facilities with new capacity in 2023 and this year are located east of the Mississippi as is a majority of the new capacity since the surge started in 2018. New and existing capacity are competing for supply, driving prices up and looking for paper further away from their mills than normal. At the same time lower paper exports have eased pressure on prices.


Supply of OCC and RMP is not keeping up with demand because inflation lowered unit sales of most consumer products. This leads to fewer boxes needed to transport those products to stores and to be available for recycling. While you and I have more boxes due to increased e-commerce, we don’t have as many as anticipated when the new capacity was being planned. The e-commerce companies are using fewer and smaller boxes to lower their costs. And when we get them, we aren’t as good at recycling them as stores. That supply shortage is keeping prices up.


To further complicate matters, due to unanticipated lower demand for their end product, a number of paper mills took “economic downtime” and temporarily stopped production until sales picked up. This includes some of the new capacity. Worse yet, the McKinley Paper Company mill in Port Angeles, Washington, which opened in 2020, recently announced it is closing. High raw material costs and sluggish demand for its products were blamed. The mill made linerboard and corrugated medium for boxes and other paper packaging.

OCC and RMP markets could stay at their current level for a while. Seasonal holiday box demand will be kicking in soon. When that is over, lower prices are likely.


The cold markets are colored HDPE and steel cans. Colored HDPE resin is primarily used for construction-related products such as water and sewer pipes because the dyes used to color the resin can’t be taken out. A year ago, the price was unusually low at 7.13 cents a pound. Then it steadily rose to 23.94 cents per pound in May before falling to 11.56 cents per pound. Colored HDPE’s price often reflects housing construction trends. New housing permits and construction starts are falling due to high housing costs. Prices will pick up when construction picks up.


Over the past year, steel can prices fell by a quarter to $152.81 per ton. Electric arc furnaces, the predominant steel making technology in the U.S., feast on any type of scrap steel. When Baltimore’s new Key Bridge is built, I hope that some of my steel cans will be in it. For now, however, steel markets are soft due to lack of demand.


That leaves us with the “meh” of natural HDPE (primarily milk jugs) and PP (primarily yogurt containers). Prices are low, but the packages are being recycled. HDPE is commonly used for detergent and shampoo bottles and many other packages. It can be dyed whatever color the package uses. A year ago, the major buyer for recycled natural HDPE stopped buying. Prices collapsed by 237 percent to 22.22 cents a pound. Since then, they have slowly increased. Still, at 37.19 cents per pound it only recently rose above its April 2020 low point. The price will get back to its normally higher levels when consumer brands decide they really want recycled content.


At 6.5 cents per pound, PP (primarily yogurt containers), is the least valuable plastic package in the bin. Its markets are primarily nonpackaging durable plastics. Sales of those products have been flat for some time, so has PP’s low price.



I’ve been tracking recycling markets for some time. Current markets are the most unusual – heck, the weirdest – I’ve seen. Part of that is COVID’s ongoing impact on the economy. Part is the stunning increase in paper recycled content capacity. Part is the ability of e-commerce companies to reduce their need for boxes. Part is the off and on demand for recycled plastic by consumer product companies. Sooner or later, this will all resolve itself. Until then, enjoy the ride.

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August 29, 2025
Northeast Recycling Council (NERC) Publishes 25 th Report Marking Six Years of Quarterly Data
By Recycled Materials Association July 29, 2025
The Northeast Recycling Council (NERC) has opened the 2025 Emerging Professionals (EP) Program . Now, in its third year, the program provides professionals who are new to the field of recycling, sustainability, and environmental stewardship with discounted access to NERC’s Conference and Foundations Course, sponsored by their employer organization. EPs gain valuable connections with seasoned industry professionals and peers while engaging in discussions on current trends, challenges, and innovations shaping the industry. This program is designed for those with three or fewer years of experience. “This year, EPs also receive a discount to our Foundations of Sustainable Materials Management course (a live, instructor-led training) developed to provide the key building blocks for understanding the industry,” said Mariane Medeiros, Senior Project Manager at NERC. “It’s a great way to close the loop: gaining both a strong technical foundation and real-world connections in one experience.” Read and Learn More.
By Chaz Miller June 30, 2025
Recycling coordinators know that some people and locations are stubbornly indifferent to recycling. COVID has ruptured civic values and behavior. Creating a recycling culture is harder than ever. Producers know how to sell their products. Now they need to learn how to sell recycling. On July 1, Oregon’s packaging and paper extended producer responsibility (EPR) program begins operating. This will be a first in our country. “Producers”, instead of local governments or private citizens, will be paying to recycle packages and paper products. Colorado’s program begins operating early in 2026. For years we have heard the theory of how packaging EPR will work. At last, we will get results. Five other states also have laws. Their programs should all be operating by 2030. None of the state laws have identical requirements. The Circular Action Alliance, the “producer responsibility organization” responsible for managing the program in most of those states, knows it has a lot on its plate. EPR laws are not new to the U.S. Thirty-two states already have laws that cover a wide variety of products such as electronics, paint, mattresses, batteries, etc. Those laws are relatively simple. Most cover one product. The producer group is a small number of companies. Goals and programs are focused and narrow. They are a mixed bag of success and failure. Packaging EPR is far more complex. The number of covered products is way higher. Thousands of companies are paying for these programs. Goals are challenging. Some are impossible to meet. In addition, local governments treat recycling as a normal service. Their residents will still call them if their recyclables aren’t picked up. It probably hasn’t helped that advocates tout EPR as the solution for recycling’s problems. We are told we will have more collection and better processing with higher recycling rates. Markets will improve and even stabilize. Some of this will happen, but not all. Collection and processing should go smoothly in Oregon. The state has high expectations for recycling. I have no doubt recycling will increase. Collection programs will blanket the state, giving more households the opportunity to recycle. I’m not sure, though, how much of an increase we will see. Recycling coordinators know that some people and locations are stubbornly indifferent to recycling. COVID has ruptured civic values and behavior. Creating a recycling culture is harder than ever. Producers know how to sell their products. Now they need to learn how to sell recycling. Another challenge is the “responsible end market” requirements. You’ve probably seen pictures of overseas dumps created by unscrupulous or just naïve plastics “recyclers”. In response, Oregon and the other states are requiring sellers and end markets to prove they are “responsible”. They must provide information about who and where they are, how they operate, how much was actually recycled, and more. Recycling end markets pushed back. Paper and metals recyclers argue they shouldn’t be covered. They don’t cause those problems. As for plastics, the general manager of one of America’s largest plastics recycling companies said his company now spends time and money gathering data and filling out forms to prove they’re “responsible”. His virgin resin competitors don’t have to. Ironically, we now import more plastics for recycling than we export. Maybe those countries should impose similar requirements on their plastics recyclers. Colorado faces unique problems. The mountain state is large. Its population is concentrated on the I-25 corridor running north and south through Denver with low population density elsewhere. Recycling collection and processing is limited as are end markets. To make matters worse, slightly more than half of its households use “subscription” services for waste and recycling collection. Those services are funded by the households, not by taxpayers. EPR doesn’t have this experience in other countries. Colorado gets to blaze this trail. The second state to go live poses substantive challenges for producers. The good news for both states? Local governments that pay for recycling collection and processing will see most of those costs go away. Consumers are unlikely to see prices rise, for now. National companies will simply spread their costs among all 50 states. Local and regional producers, unfortunately, don’t have that advantage. As for improved markets, remember that recyclables are and always will be commodities subject to the ups and downs of the economy. I don’t see substantive changes in recycling markets unless the producer group’s members try to manipulate markets to their own advantage. 2025 saw new laws and changes to existing laws. Maryland and Washington became the sixth and seventh packaging EPR states. At the same time, California is rewriting its regulations and Maine significantly revised its law. Some of these changes narrowed EPR’s scope to the dismay of advocates. I’m a member of Maryland’s EPR Advisory Council. We’ve been meeting for a year, discussing the Needs Assessment and now our new law. We have our own unique set of challenges. We also have a big advantage. We can learn from Oregon’s and Colorado’s experiences. Tune in next year to learn how we are progressing. Read on Waste360.