2025 Recycling Markets Took a Beating in a Weak Retail Year

Chaz Miller • January 5, 2026

2025 was not a good year for recycling markets. Prices went down for everything in your bin. The only real difference is how badly each material got hit and why.


Let’s start with paper, the most important recyclable in terms of weight and volume. Old Corrugated Container (OCC, boxes) prices started rising in the spring of 2023, peaking for several months in the summer of 2024. A long slide then began and lasted for almost all of 2025. Prices for Residential Mixed Paper (RMP) did the same. Nationally, OCC is now at $46.88 per ton and RMP is $20.31 a ton. OCC went down by a third while RMP went down by half. The “good” news is that these prices have been lower in the last five years. RMP, after all, had a negative value early in 2020 and then for a few months in late 2022. (All prices in this article are national prices from RecyclingMarkets.net as of December 31).


The 2023 rise and then fall of recycled paper prices was the result of increased capacity to use OCC and RMP as raw materials along with declining overall demand for boxes. New recycled content paper capacity started coming online in 2017, peaking in 2023 when five new mills opened. Those new mills, eager to build up supply lines, caused prices to go up. Existing capacity had no choice but to also pay more. At the same time, demand for new boxes was going down. In fact, box demand has been going down for four years. Something had to give. In 2025, nine existing paper mills announced they would be closing. Old, more expensive, and less efficient to operate, they couldn’t compete with the new mills.


All four plastic resins lost value but the impact varied by resin. Natural HDPE, (mostly milk jugs) lost a third of its value. Polypropylene (mostly dairy products) went down by 40 percent. Color HDPE (consumer products such as detergent and shampoo) went down by 48 percent and PET beverage bottles went down by two thirds.


Natural HDPE is 46.81 cents a pound. Even at the lower price, this resin remains in a good price range. 


PET and polypropylene are both 5.38 cents a pound. Recycled PET rose steadily from the summer of 2023 to the summer of 2024. Then it declined equally steadily until it reached a record low of 4.19 cents in early October of this year. Cheap recycled resin imports, too much domestic virgin PET resin and lower summer beverage demand gave prices nowhere to go but down. Recycled PET resin imports are now subject to tariffs, which may be responsible for its recent increase. Nonetheless, its price remains in the doldrums. 


Polypropylene generally has a low price except when new capacity is coming online and building up capacity. For 46 of the 72 months since January 2020, its price has been less than a dime a pound. For 17 months, it’s been at its current not very good price or less. 

Color HDPE is 2.81 cents a pound. This resin depends on construction markets because the color can’t be taken out of the resin. New housing starts have been in decline for four years. It also set a record low price in 2025. 


Aluminum and steel cans are recycling market’s happy place. Their prices went down by 9.3 and 8.7 percent. Aluminum cans have a national average price of 78.75 cents while steel cans go for $158.75 a ton. Over the last few years, the aluminum industry smartly expanded into non-alcoholic beverages such as water and fruit juices. Those new uses keep demand up. After sliding last year, steel can prices stabilized.   


As for glass, it’s price rarely changes. Clear glass bottles go for $38.56 a ton, brown for $27.19 and green for $10.31. Those prices all rose slightly in the spring of 2023. Mixed glass from single stream curbside collection has a “negative tipping fee” of $25.31 a ton. In other words, the MRF pays the end market to buy it. That price became slightly more negative this year. The glass industry has been in decline for some time, a victim of lighter weight aluminum cans and plastic bottles. In addition, Americans are drinking less alcohol. That’s the biggest user of glass bottles.


Our beleaguered economy is hurting recycling markets. Recyclables are just raw materials looking for a buyer. Those buyers are purchasing managers making a bet on how much raw materials they will need for their companies’ products. This can be, say, aluminum cans, boxes to ship those empty cans to beverage companies or boxes to deliver filled cans to retail outlets. When buyers are optimistic, they buy more. In 2025, they were gloomy.


Prices of all of these recyclables have been hurt by declining unit sales of consumer products and the resulting decline in box demand. We are in a “K-shaped” economic recovery from the pandemic. This means the recovery’s impact varied by economic status. Wealthy households now account for half of consumer spending on goods and services. They spend more on “services” such as trips and entertainment than on goods. Lower income households, however, are squeezed between paying for necessities such as housing, health care, insurance and food before everything else. They are pinching their nickels and looking for bargains. Simply stated, due to the K-shaped recovery, sales are down and we need fewer packages and shipping boxes.


So what will happen in 2026? The loss of so much older paper capacity is bringing demand and supply back into a better balance. Look for prices to rebound a bit. Plastic prices will remain soft barring a reversal of the K-shaped recovery. PET prices, have the most potential if beverage demand returns. Color HDPE, will remain in the doldrums until new housing construction increases. Natural HDPE will stay where it is or go up a bit. Polypropylene will probably stay where it is. As for glass, change isn’t likely.


I realize that’s not optimistic. Given the projected rise in health, insurance and energy costs this year, Americans will still be pinching pennies. Box production will decline as unit sales fall. Our K-shaped economy needs to become a rising economic tide lifting all boats. Recyclables, afterall, are commodities subject to the economy’s ups and downs. When our economy truly rebounds, recycling markets will thrive again.


Read on Waste360.

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By Sophie Leone July 13, 2026
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By Megan Quinn | WasteDive July 8, 2026
A resurgence of secondhand shopping, new sorting methods and policy initiatives are all poised to help shift the needle on textile waste, speakers at a NERC webinar said. Thrift stores are a first line of defense against textile waste, and changing attitudes about thrifting and resale could help shape recycling systems and divert more material from landfills in coming years, said speakers at the Northeast Recycling Council’s material reuse forum webinar on Tuesday. Secondhand clothing is playing a powerful role in U.S. textile export markets, which in turn influences how and when textiles end up in recycling streams, said executives from thrift stores and researchers from the National Institute for Standards in Technology. A rising interest in thrifting, upcycling and clothing repair could help keep clothing in use longer, and when textiles are too worn out to wear, newer sorting technologies could help sort end-of-life textiles more effectively for better end markets, they said. Here’s a few takeaways from the webinar: Thrift stores: making landfill diversion look cool Thrifting is not a new concept, but Americans have become more and more receptive to thrifting in recent years due to a combination of rising expenses, tariff concerns and economic uncertainty. There’s also the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, when people had more time to look through their closets for unwanted items to donate, said Giana Manganaro Cronin, associate director of retail for More Than Words, a nonprofit youth job training program in the Boston area. More Than Words uses its thrift stores as a key way to offer job training and provide stable jobs for the youth who participate in the program, she said. The organization used to sell used books, but a fresh wave of interest in secondhand shopping spurred by the pandemic prompted the nonprofit to switch to a thrift store model instead. “This was not only a crucial pivot for the environment and to keep more things out of the landfill, but also do well for our business and our young people too,” she said. The nonprofit’s thrift stores, called Boomerangs, offer a 98% margin compared to its previous 62% retail bookstore model, and Manganaro Cronin expects that to continue in coming years. Gen Z shoppers are leading the trend, in part because reducing their environmental footprint is a core value for the demographic, she said. About 64% of shoppers in that age range look at resale options before buying new products, she said. Young shoppers are expected to continue influencing this trend, said Uli Stosch, chief officer of strategic development for Planet Aid, a thrift store nonprofit that has collected and reused more than 2 billion pounds of clothing since its inception in 1997. Citing numbers from an annual resale report prepared by online thrift company ThredUp, she added that the U.S. secondhand apparel market grew 14% in 2024, and the market is anticipated to reach $74 billion by 2029. The next step: Labor-intensive export and recycling markets More Than Words and other thrift stores like it does its best to sell as many items as possible. But for items that can’t sell, the organization often partners with secondary buyers, such as wholesalers who have access to a broad range of additional secondhand markets, Manganaro Cronin said. Stosch said thrift stores and other secondhand stores typically sell between 10% and 50% of their items, and a “small amount’ ends up going in the trash — mostly soiled items not fit for wearing or using. Another portion gets classified as “mixed rags” and baled for export, where they are further sorted for more reuse, resale or recycling purposes, she said. Many of these bales end up in Pakistan and Malaysia, where workers are trained to go through the time-consuming process of hand sorting each piece to separate out the quality clothes for resale while setting aside lower-quality textiles for other uses. “It’s very, very labor intensive to do this. You stand for long hours and have to pick through all the right things,” she said. Because it takes so much time to sort these items correctly, “there’s a limit to how much textiles we can process this way,” she said. From there, many of the clothes destined for resale go to countries in Africa, the Caribbean and Central America. More than 1.5 billion people around the world rely on second-hand clothing, she said, especially as an alternative to low-quality fast fashion brands. Guatemala has a particularly strong secondhand import market, she said. A 2025 study from Full Cycle Resource noted that the country imported 290 million pounds of clothing in 2023 and reused more than 91% of it, with women-owned clothing stores making up more than half of the industry. Complex streams, complex recycling options When clothing or textiles are too worn out or unfit to be worn again, and have already been downgraded to be used as rags or industrial cloth, recycling is one of the next best options. That’s when a new set of challenges kick in, said Katarina Goodge, a materials research engineer at NIST. Textiles are a complex and challenging waste stream to sort, in part because there are no set standards on how to handle the materials today, she said. Setting standards “would help scale up in efficiency in this system,” she added. Another problem: Textile sorting is largely done by hand, as opposed to other recycled materials that can quickly be sorted by a range of AI-enabled robotic sorting technologies, Goodge said. One reason hand sorting is the norm is because it’s tough to tell exactly what a garment is made of. “We need to know the fiber content to know how to recycle that garment,” she said, but the tag inside might simply say it’s made of 95% rayon and 5% “other.” A particularly itchy tag might get cut out of the garment entirely. “We need to look at a more systematic and technological solution to this,” she said – and technology is catching up. Handheld near-infrared devices can give insight into a garment’s material makeup, and when paired with AI or machine learning models, identifying fiber contents can become faster and more efficient. A handheld NIR scanner could be paired with hand sorting to guide garments into the right bins, Goodge said, and larger-scale solutions might be able to identify textiles while they’re on a conveyor belt, with a robotic arm component to pick off specific items. In the U.S., textile recycling infrastructure is not as common as recycling systems for curbside materials, though some companies have invested in such technology in recent years. A future of reuse, repair and policy change Legislation could make a difference in textile recycling initiatives in coming years, the speakers said. California’s extended producer responsibility for textiles law is in the process of being implemented, which will prompt more outlets for clothing donation, repair and recycling, Stosch said. Countries in the EU are also on the hook to implement similar textile EPR programs. Meanwhile, disposal bans in states like Massachusetts have prompted both thrift stores and lawmakers to wonder what to do with textiles that aren’t fit for resale but could be recycled into other products, Stosch said. Most thrift stores will accept apparel that’s torn or missing buttons, as long as it’s clean: “If it’s clean, it can be made into something else.” There’s also more room for creative ways to reuse or repair clothing before it goes to a recycling center, speakers added. For example, community repair events are good ways to teach basic sewing skills and inspire people to make something new with old apparel, Goodge said. “We used to have some infrastructure in the U.S. for repair, and that has largely sort of gone away, because it’s really hard to keep that economically viable,” she said. Yet repair efforts “have a huge potential to keep a lot of these garments as garments.” Read on WasteDive.
By IndexBox July 8, 2026
Thrift stores act as a frontline barrier against textile waste, and shifting consumer perspectives on thrifting and resale could help refine recycling systems and pull more material away from landfills in the years ahead, according to panelists at a Northeast Recycling Council material reuse forum webinar held on Tuesday. Executives from thrift stores and researchers from the National Institute for Standards and Technology pointed out that secondhand clothing holds a strong position in U.S. textile export markets, which in turn shapes how and when textiles reach recycling streams. A rising enthusiasm for thrifting, upcycling, and clothing repair could extend the useful life of garments, and when textiles become too worn for wear, emerging sorting technologies could more efficiently handle end-of-life textiles to improve end markets, they noted. Thrift Stores: Making Landfill Diversion Attractive Thrifting is not a novel idea, but Americans have grown increasingly open to it in recent years due to a mix of rising costs, tariff worries, and economic instability, along with lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, when people had extra time to sort through their closets for items to donate, said Giana Manganaro Cronin, associate director of retail for More Than Words, a nonprofit youth job training program based in the Boston area. More Than Words leverages its thrift stores as a primary means to deliver job training and secure stable employment for participating youth, she explained. The organization previously sold used books, but a surge in interest in secondhand shopping triggered by the pandemic led the nonprofit to adopt a thrift store model instead. This shift was not only vital for the environment and for keeping more items out of landfills, but also beneficial for the business and the young people involved, she said. The nonprofit's thrift stores, known as Boomerangs, achieve a 98% margin compared to the previous 62% margin from its retail bookstore model, and Manganaro Cronin anticipates this trend will persist. Gen Z shoppers are driving this movement, partly because minimizing their environmental impact is a fundamental value for that group, she noted. About 64% of shoppers in that age bracket explore resale options before purchasing new items, she added. Young consumers are expected to keep shaping this trend, said Uli Stosch, chief officer of strategic development for Planet Aid, a thrift store nonprofit that has gathered and reused over 2 billion pounds of clothing since its founding in 1997. Drawing on data from an annual resale report by online thrift company ThredUp, she noted that the U.S. secondhand apparel market expanded by 14% in 2024 and is projected to hit $74 billion by 2029. Labor-Intensive Export and Recycling Markets More Than Words and similar thrift stores strive to sell as many items as possible, but for unsellable goods, the organization frequently collaborates with secondary buyers such as wholesalers who have access to a wide array of additional secondhand markets, Manganaro Cronin said. Stosch noted that thrift stores and other secondhand retailers typically sell between 10% and 50% of their inventory, with a minor portion ending up in the trash, mainly soiled items unsuitable for wearing or use. Another share is categorized as mixed rags and baled for export, where it undergoes further sorting for reuse, resale, or recycling. Many of these bales are sent to Pakistan and Malaysia, where workers are trained to manually sort each piece to separate quality clothing for resale while diverting lower-quality textiles for other uses. Stosch described this process as extremely labor-intensive, requiring long hours of standing and sorting through items, and noted that there is a cap on how much textiles can be handled this way due to the time involved. From there, many clothes intended for resale are shipped to countries in Africa, the Caribbean, and Central America. Over 1.5 billion people globally depend on secondhand clothing, she said, particularly as an alternative to low-quality fast fashion brands. Guatemala has a notably strong secondhand import market, she added. A 2025 study by Full Cycle Resource found that the country imported 290 million pounds of clothing in 2023 and reused more than 91% of it, with women-owned clothing stores accounting for over half of the industry. Complex Streams, Complex Recycling Options When clothing or textiles are too worn or unfit for further wear and have already been downgraded to rags or industrial cloth, recycling becomes one of the next best options. This is where a fresh set of difficulties emerges, said Katarina Goodge, a materials research engineer at NIST. Textiles represent a complex and challenging waste stream to sort, partly because no established standards exist for handling these materials today, she said. Establishing standards would help boost efficiency in this system, she added. Another issue is that textile sorting is predominantly done manually, unlike other recycled materials that can be quickly sorted using various AI-enabled robotic sorting technologies, Goodge noted. One reason manual sorting remains standard is the difficulty in determining a garment's exact composition. Goodge explained that knowing the fiber content is essential to know how to recycle a garment, but the tag inside might only state it is made of 95% rayon and 5% other, or an itchy tag might be completely removed. She emphasized the need for a more systematic and technological approach, and noted that technology is advancing. Handheld near-infrared devices can reveal a garment's material composition, and when combined with AI or machine learning models, identifying fiber contents can become faster and more efficient. A handheld NIR scanner could be used alongside manual sorting to direct garments into appropriate bins, Goodge said, and larger-scale systems might identify textiles while on a conveyor belt, with a robotic arm component to pick out specific items. In the U.S., textile recycling infrastructure is less common than curbside recycling systems, though some companies have invested in such technology in recent years. A Future of Reuse, Repair, and Policy Change Legislation could drive changes in textile recycling efforts in the years ahead, the speakers said. California's extended producer responsibility for textiles law is being implemented, which will encourage more outlets for clothing donation, repair, and recycling, Stosch said. Countries in the EU are also required to implement similar textile EPR programs. Meanwhile, disposal bans in states like Massachusetts have led both thrift stores and lawmakers to consider what to do with textiles that are not suitable for resale but could be recycled into other products, Stosch said. Most thrift stores will accept apparel that is torn or missing buttons, as long as it is clean, she noted, adding that if it is clean, it can be turned into something else. There is also potential for creative ways to reuse or repair clothing before it reaches a recycling center, speakers added. For instance, community repair events are effective for teaching basic sewing skills and inspiring people to create something new from old apparel, Goodge said. She noted that the U.S. once had some infrastructure for repair, but that has largely disappeared because it is difficult to keep economically viable, yet repair efforts have significant potential to keep many garments as garments. P Read on IndexBox.